Environment & Emissions

Overview

Since its founding in the 1980s, JD Energy has recognized the integral role played by environmental issues in forecasting the energy and electricity sectors.

Shortly after the passage of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, JD Energy launched its Environmental Practice to provide individualized attention to these pollutants as well as to other environmental concerns.

What Distinguishes Our Environmental Practice

JD Energy's Environmental Practice is distinguished by our unique grasp of the interplay of policy, technical and economic factors that influence the environmental and emissions trading scene.  This is made possible by our extensive multi-disciplined industry expertise and our rigorous forecasting approach.

Our Expertise

• Over 15 years of forecasting emissions trading markets, not only for SO2 and NOx, but also for proposed legislation/regulation of mercury and CO2.
• Premier pollution control engineering knowledge that grounds our evaluations by factoring in real world applications of what is (and what is not) possible.
• Strong ability to assess the economic trade-offs of different regulatory and market approaches to addressing a multi-pollutant control strategy.

Our Approach

JD Energy's Environmental forecasts incorporate a broad spectrum of diverse factors to arrive at a close approximation of real world outcomes.  Among other supply/demand drivers, our region-level forecasts account for:

• Complete integration of energy and macroeconomic assumptions used in all other JD Energy projections.
• Flexible models that permit consideration of state and regional-specific restrictions on individual pollutants (e.g., mercury) where they differ from national standards.
• Detailed unit-specific capability that enables separate assessments of pollutant control costs based on different unit sizes, fuel use characteristics, and role in regional electricity markets.

We extensively cover both the immediate short-term markets and also give in-depth assessments of the various long-term forces at play that will affect the likelihood and costs of controlling each pollutant's emissions decades from now.

In addition, in recognition of the significant uncertainty in energy markets, JD Energy evaluates probabilistic alternative cases in all of its analyses, thereby providing the user with a carefully considered bandwidth of outcomes for purposes of contingency planning and risk management.

Our Publications

• Monthly Emisison Allowance Price Forecast (Emissions Monthly)
  • Forecasts monthly SO2, NOx and CO2 (RGGI) allowance prices out 24-36 months
  • Issued monthly
  • Includes 8-page narrative analysis of major market dynamics in emissions markets
• Quarterly Long-Term Emissions Price Forecast
  • Forecasts average annual emissions prices out 25 years
  • Covers SO2, NOx, Mercury and CO2 (national as well as regional)
  • Includes two alternate cases scenarios to "Base Case"
  • Provides 15-page narrative analysis of market outlook for each pollutant
• Environmental Background Papers
  • Occasional series that includes detailed data and explanations to supplement core forecasts
  • Separate Background Papers address each major pollutant individually
  • Our "Environmental Timeline" Background Paper addresses detailed assessments of broader trends in federal/regional/state environmental policies as well as other pollutant concerns (e.g., PM2.5, Regional Haze, New Source Review, etc.)

JD Energy Environment and Emission Practice publications are available for individual purchase or as part of a larger subscription.  Please Contact Us to learn more.